Signed in as:
filler@godaddy.com
C919 - Ton of Orders but Low Production
The production handicap keeps COMAC humble
China's Suparna Airlines, a subsidiary of Hainan Airlines Group says it will phase out the Boeing fleet and becomes an all C919 airline. The statement sounds glorious and very patriotic. The airlines says it will receive its first C919 in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Hainan Airlines ordered 60 C919s of which half will be allocated to Suparna. Then how long will it take for Suparna to receive the 30 aircraft?
There are really no C919's production rates announced by COMAC. The rate reported by the media for 2024 is about 10 aircraft. Sky VIsion estimates that's an aggressive rate for COMAC. Chinese media also reported that Air China and China Southern will receive their first C919s in 2024. China Eastern will add six more to its fleet. Now comes Suparna that is going to take one. COMAC has lots of C919 orders on its books however the production rates remain a myth. How long will take Suparna to become a whole C919 fleet? Contact Sky Vision for more insights.
Boeing's Zhoushan Facility Resumed Delivery
According to Chinese media, after nearly a five-year pause Boeing’s Zhoushan Completion and Delivery Center delivered a 737 MAX 8 to Shanghai Airlines on March 9. The tail number of the aircraft is B-2240. This is the third delivery of 737 MAX made from this facility. The previous delivery to Air China was happened back in 2019.
Boeing Zhoushan Completion and Delivery Center, located at Zhoushan Archipelago in Zhejiang province with a two-hour driving distance from Shanghai is a joint-venture between Boeing and COMAC. More of window-dressing than a real interior completion center it is intended to make deliveries of some 737 MAX planes to Chinese customers from in-land China. The facility was also designed to serve two other strategic aims for Boeing: 1, to keep an eye on the C919 final assembly; 2, to create a mirage that Boeing marched up its game to the Airbus final assembly line in Tianjin. Zhoushan was not Boeing’s first choice of location. It wanted to be inside COMAC, next to the C919 assembly line in Lingang Shanghai. It was COMAC and the Chinese government who swayed Boeing away and laid its foundation in Zhoushan.
Nevertheless China and especially Zhejing Province foresaw the great potential of such a Boeing facility in its territory. Since its establishment Boeing has trained Chinese workers in quality control, paint and delivery management. After the two deadly 737 MAX crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia China closed this factory. The pandemic and the trade war between China and USA only helped delay its reopen. The delivery made on March 9, despite symbolic, speaks volume that things are moving and Boeing’s delivery to China is getting back on track. This is positive news against a slew of bad news for Boeing these days. Again let’s hope for no drama from now on.
Airbus Wins Big in China
Boeing's woe in China is more than the trade war
With the three Chinese state-owned airlines announcing a massive order of 292 aircraft for A320Neo, Airbus wins big in China. Immediately Boeing blames the trade war for losing such a deal. In fact Boeing well knows that itself also has much to be blamed.
Airplane orders are always woven with politics for China. Geopolitics and the US-China trade war have deeply dented Boeing's prospect in the country. The US government has not been doing much to help Boeing's position in China. Losing such an order is costly to Boeing. The biggest pain comes from losing China Southern Airlines as it's been traditionally more of a Boeing customer.
However Boeing itself should also take responsibility in losing such a purchase from China. First the deadly crashes of 737 Max cast a shadow in the Chinese mind. Despite being re-approved by CAAC for its airworthiness the jet has not been widely deployed by the airlines. It is reasonable to doubt that China would ever want to order the MAX again. Second and what makes it worse is the mysterious but tragic nosedive of MU5735, a 737-800 aircraft that killed 132 people in March. Up until today China has not disclosed the investigation results. The crash was so traumatic to the Chinese authority that it could ever believe the "intentional" aspect of it as reported by the WSJ. However China is well aware that the report was an intentional leak by the US side as Boeing wanted to waive its responsibility. Boeing may have many good reasons for such a leak, however their Chinese constituency could ever appreciate for it.
Last but not the least it is the conservatism that spells on safety in China. Especially after the crash of MU57535 the country has gone paranoid in ensuring flight safety. Here safety is not balanced with technical nuances and rationality but exercised with absolute extremism. Such an approach can only manifest a lack of expertise and its subsequent technical ineptness. With three deadly crashes carrying the number of 737, China may just want to stay away, and order safe plus safe aircraft. This mentality is very much similar to how the country handles the covid-19 with a zero policy and continues to block its borders regardless of the science of omicron.
Let's congratulate Airbus for so far enduring the test for safety and reaping such a significant order from China.
China Southern Airlines Fly 737 MAX Again
China's social media widely reported this test flight of 737 MAX conducted by China Southern Airlines. Flight data shows that the plane takes off in Guangzhou and lands somewhere unknown on June 11. The next day June 12 the plane takes off in Shanghai and arrives in Shenzhen.
China Southern just announced to pull out of the MAX fleet until 2024 a few weeks ago. With an aviation subsidy program in place from May to mid July, it is a positive sign that the country is preparing to further easing covid restrictions and allowing airlines to schedule more flights in the summer. Though Shanghai is still in sporadic lockdowns of certain neighborhoods, situation in Guangzhou and the Great Pearl Delta area have largely improved. The outcry of resuming more flights and allow flying crews to keep their licenses and maintain livelihood is resonating in every corner of the industry.
Aviation Recovery at Accelerating Speed
China Eastern Airlines have released more than 200 aircraft to fly
Every often in China things have to go terribly wrong before it gets right. The system of policy-making lacks flexibility which often results in over-stretches in execution. On the flip side if a policy is right and welcome, it could propel things to grow at an accelerating speed. Since June 1 after the covid lockdown restriction was lifted, there has been a slew of good news witnessing aviation recovery.
China Eastern Airlines has released 200+ aircraft up until May 31 and will release another 132 more in June. China Southern Airlines operated its first flight out of Pudong on June 6 which symbolizes its recovery of Shanghai operations. Juneyao and Spring Airlines have also scheduled more flights and will continue to increase capacity for the possible summer travel boom.
During the three-day Dragon Boat Festival in early June, freights at Pudong Airport reached a "normal level" by CAAC count - about 200 flights daily on average.
Talks of increasing international flights are abound but Sky Vision has not witnessed a recovery of scheduling. Nevertheless all signs seem positive and the momentum of recovery looks strong. A message revealed recently says that the Chinese government has begun to re-issue visa to the expat's family members who have stranded overseas since March 2020. This encouraging news points to the recovery of international flights a next step.
China Southern Widely Resumes Flights on May 13
China Southern Airlines is one of the most progressive as well as best-managed airlines in China. The flagship airlines announced that it scheduled 61 domestic flights from its home base Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on May 13, 2022. It represents a "significant recovery" of traffic since the covid-19 curfew imposed by the authority in early April. Baiyun Airport also exempted the requirement of a negative PCR test result carried by the passenger to enter its facility.
In the meantime, through its official account on wechat, Shanghai government announced that it strives to achieve zero case "in the middle of May" and accordingly will allow society to re-open gradually and orderly.
The week of May 6-13, 2022 was an eventful week in China filled with acerbic rhetoric and poignant dramas in order to reinforce its zero covid policy. Read more on our blog page.
