2024 Highlights

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It started on a fool's joke and ended with childish plays - that is the way the local populace describes the closure of the recent Shanghai lockdown. (April 1 is the Fool's Day and June 1 is China's Children's Holiday.)

Much has gone back to normal with the lockdown ban lifted. Many shops have re-opened for business while the others are preparing to open. Some office buildings have been allowed to enter. Inter-city trains also have extended to 15 days in advance booking in lieu of 5 days. Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines have announced "a full effort to resume flights".

Regular PCR testing booths have been set up in various locations in the city. A piece of paper showing a swipe-to-enter code is now posted on almost every entrance. Shanghai has taken the precedence to reduce the 48-hour PCR test proof to 72 hours for entering public places and taking transportation. Regular testing is made free to the public until June 30, 2022.       

It was also reported that an aviation subsidy program which was supposed to be running between May 21 to July 21 has been halted on May 31 after only 10 days in effectiveness.

The two-month lockdown were mad days in Shanghai. The scar it created on people's wellbeing will remain for a long time.         

There are videos shared on wechat showing parents on the streets in direct clashes with the "police", whose true identities are thought to be military personnel. 

On April 14, news of converting a primary school in Zhangjiang, Pudong District into a quarantine center stroke a chord with parents. They managed to go on the street standing in front of the gate of the school protecting. The video shows columns of "Dabai" (people wearing hazmat suits) marching towards the crowds and finally clashing with them. People shouted in anger "inhumane", "bastards" and "why people's policemen hit its own people?!" 

Another image on wechat showing a woman with a loudspeaker telling people why they have to protect this conversion soon got censored for viewing.  

About two weeks ago, rhetoric of the Chinese officials was "Shanghai is not locked down and will not lock down". No one is saying it these days. Now Shanghai is under lockdown. To our knowledge the longest period that some people have experienced is 24 days as of April 5, 2022. 

A few facts are worth to know to understand the dynamics of this lockdown.

1, Hoarding began at the night of March 27 when the government suddenly announced that Pudong will be locked down at 5am in the next morning. 

2, The first question family and friends ask each other these days is "Do you have enough food?". Currently both Chinese and expat communities have a prevalent fear of not having enough food to sustain this lockdown.

3, Fear about being locked in a quarantine center runs much higher than being affected by Omicron.

4, Though there are still debates about the validity of "dynamic zero policy", criticism to the policy is fierce in more educated populace and especially from doctors and nurses. Some of whom are prominent disease-control experts.    

6, Due to the criticism and Shanghai's overwhelming incongruence to the zero policy, Beijing has sent a vice premier Ms. Sun to Shanghai to direct and supervise the "battle". 

7, More than 38,000 medical staff from military and 15 provinces have arrived Shanghai for assistance. 

8. Spring and Juneyao Airlines, the two privately-owned airlines based in Shanghai operate the most of flights each day. China Eastern and Shanghai airlines have dramatically reduced their flights to basically only one flight to one major city each day. 

9. Most train services have stopped. It has been reported that train spreads the virus to more Chinese cities than flights.

10. A new Chinese word 方舱医院 is created from this lockdown. It literally means "square warehouse hospital" which refers to the isolated quarantine centers. 

The above facts are as of April 5, 2022. Situation changes everyday. The most imminent is still lack of food for almost every household. 

April 5, 2022

Air travel has plummeted drastically in China since the Cononavirus outbreak. Domestic seats dropped close to 60% year on year in February 2020 and international seats plunged almost 80%. The airline industry has halted nearly 70% of its operation. On Feb. 2 alone, the country canceled as many as 11, 632 flights. 

At the time when this article was written in early March, the Coronavirus syndrome for the airline industry had spilled over from Asia Pacific to the rest of the world. People began to feel weary about flying. Many canceled scheduled trips. Airlines also slashed and suspended flights. Karen Walker from Aviation Week wrote “It was that uncertainty and different responses by various governments that fueled the global public panic. People … did not want to fly … because of the perceived greater risk of catching the virus while trapped in a tube for several hours in close proximity to strangers.” The reason has merits. Flying sounds dreadful currently. Any passenger can be a risk factor – a potential virus spreader. Yet despite its validity, flying on a jetliner remains the safest way of travel even during an epidemic. The advantages of traveling by air far surpass any other mode of public transportation.  

Facts and data have shown no cases of contagion from an airplane to date. All passengers including flight crews, China and International alike, are healthy and sound. This is contrary to the risks exposed on a cruise ship where thousands of travelers share space between a few decks, socializing, eating and entertaining collectively for days. Andrew Herdman, Director General at the Association of Asia Pacific states “Air travel does not cause more virus cases, but rather disperse the cases further.” So even though you are confined in a tube-like cabin, such confinement of a few hours is still much shorter than a ground journey. The possibility of catching an infection in such a timeframe by any person is low. In addition, keep in mind that air travel is highly regulated by each country’s aviation authority. Health and safety measures are comprehensive and need to be strictly followed by each operational flight. Many efforts and procedures add layers of protection to ensure cabin cleanliness and safety. All planes in service have been thoroughly cleaned and disinfected. in China, the aviation authority also mandates no cabin movement within 20 minutes after take-off and 30-minutes before landing. Many passengers complained about this rule as it impacts mobility as well as reduces cabin service. But in time of combating the Conoravirus, reducing cabin movement of passengers is the right thing to do.   

Another factor which contributes to a plane’s health safety is the air quality. Despite an enclosed tube, the air flowing in a plane is high-quality fresh air. It is cleaned with high-efficiency filters and the circulation system constantly brings in fresh air. In some aspects, the air in the cabin is cleaner than the air in an office building. Breathing in such an environment, it is unlikely to catch a respiratory infection. In fact there have been very few reports of infectious diseases being transmitted on planes in aviation history. Such research findings were announced recently by Emory University who conducted a series of studies on flights and disease transmission with scientists at Boeing.

Putting technicalities aside, we understand the biggest uncertainty comes from the human side.  People don’t feel safe because of the big unknowns about other passengers – who they are, where they have been, whether they have already contracted etc. In China as there is a temperature check at every airport, the chance for a COVID-19 suspect boarding a flight is almost zero. If your city and your country don’t do temperature checks, or psychologically you are just weary about other passengers, the best course of action on a plane is to sit away from others. Purchase a Business or Premium Economy class ticket if possible. Minimize your movement and activities during the flight. There have been advice about choosing a window seat, not touching the IFE screen and turning on the air knob etc. Here are some of my answers relative to these tips.

1, Does a window seat help? 

Technically speaking there is not much difference between a window vs. aisle or middle seat, especially when the flight exceeds 70% capacity. Except providing you a feeling of being cornered and isolated, a window seat offers few additional advantages, as you are still surrounded by other passengers. It only helps if your window seat keeps you away from people. However, other seats may offer similar distance as well, maybe even more. 

2, How about not touching the IFE screen? 

If you want to watch in-flight entertainment (IFE) programs, I would say just do it. Not to touch things or touching as little as possible reduces the possibility of picking up a germ or virus but does not eliminate it. It is almost impossible for a regular traveler not to touch things during a flight. But always remember to wash your hands, frequently and thoroughly. If you have portable sanitizers with you, wipe the IFE screen before touching it.  

3, Shall I turn on the air knob or switch it off?

The air knob on top of your seat is part of the plane’s Environmental Control System (ECS). It helps to get cooler and circulated air. Air coming out of this outlet does not necessarily kill or suck in germs or virus but works with the entire ECS of the aircraft which produces high-quality clean air. So the simple answer is yes, to help air circulation and keep the cabin feel fresh, turn on the air knob.  

Since the COVID-19 outbreak in late January, I have traveled a couple of times within China. I have been to airports and train stations. I have flown commercial flights as well as riding a bullet train. My flight from Chengdu to Beijing was almost full. I managed to sit in a seat in the front-row of the main cabin. There were passengers sitting nearby but not close. In China almost all major airlines don’t open the first row for online seat reservations – a practice that bothers me deeply. But on this flight, it worked to my benefit. I switched to a front-row seat immediately after I noticed a passenger sitting next to my reserved seat. I hoped this instinctive reaction of mine was justified as the government educated people to keep distance from each other. 

The man most likely felt relieved that I chose not to sit next to him. He was wearing a mask, quiet and still. For the entire flight, I did not put my mask on whereas the flight crew and many passengers wore masks. I felt safe. I always feel safe on an airplane. I believe in air travel. In addition to its utility, I believe in the notion that flying represents dreams. Dreams of freedom. Dreams of reaching new highs. 

Last night I received a promotion message from China Southern Airlines, one of my favorite carriers in China, telling me a RMB200 free coupon had been deposited into my account. Browsing Ctrip.com this morning I found that RMB200 yuan can take me to a trip from Shanghai  to Chengdu, or Shanghai to Xi’an etc. In other words, these routes are being offered for free. I did not rejoice when I saw it, instead I felt saddened. The giant Chinese airline industry takes decades of indigenous and painstaking work to build but collapsed only in a matter of days. While we all trust there will be a recovery, we also know the process can take months, if not years. In China, people begin to feel the worse is behind us. Airlines are looking forward to gradually resuming fights. The sooner people come out to fly, the quicker the recovery. Please allow me to end this article by saying: Come out to fly. Let’s keep flying. Let’s keep our dreams alive. It is safe to fly. Now. And in the future. 

March 2020

Last night, when I mentioned I worked for Boeing, someone said “they have a scandal now. The crashes are so scary.” 

When it comes to flying, almost all crashes are fatal and tragic. I pray for the 346 souls lost in Lion Air 610 and Ethiopia Airlines flight 302 as well as extend my great sympathy for their families and loved ones. 

There is no scandal for Boeing rather the tarnish to its reputation and the reduced public confidence in its products. Needless to say catastrophes like these make you question about aviation safety. Should we still fly? Should we still fly Boeing? What does it mean to you and me as an ordinary passenger? 

Let me explain in the simplest layman’s term in what could have happened. Bear in mind that no final conclusion have drawn about the causes of the crashes at this moment. 

The 737 MAX 8 is an upgrade version of 737-800 which is the best seller among all 737NGs (new generation). As it has a larger engine than the 737-800, Boeing installed a software acronymed as MCAS. It brings down the nose of the airplane when it hits a stall during a lift. In the Lion Air flight, MCAS sent false data to put the plane in a nose-down mode. The cockpit struggled to lift the plane. After a few failed attempts by both the captain and the first officer, MCAS set the plane at a maximum nose-down effect. The captain tried to pull back from full force but it was too late to reverse the dive.

There is one important philosophy of Boeing’s airplane design which we’d like to call “aviator in charge”. What it means is that when the buttons and machines in the cockpit fail to function, pilots can pull the gears and switches manually to take full control of the aircraft. Visualize the traditional image of a pilot in your head. That person would be strong, tall and fit. Physical requirements have been very important for being a pilot. He has to be well fit to be able to pull the heavy gears of an aircraft in time of emergency. Unfortunately this feature has been disappearing due to the advancement of technology. Just like any modern machine. Automation is in charge. Imagine that you rely on an iphone or Huawei to shoot pictures instead of using a Nikon or Canon. Even if you use a camera, how many times do you set on P (programmed) as opposed to M (manual)? In short, our human beings are more reliant on computer programming and software to do work for us. For airplane design, it is more or less the same. (Fly-by-wire is first introduced by Airbus for its A320.) The philosophy of automation is to reduce human errors and make flying easier. However if some of the programs go wrong, humans cannot do much about it. Just like your laptop suddenly got stuck while you are using it, you have to shut it down and restart. When it comes to airplane, there is no such a chance for comeback.  

After the Ethiopian crash, especially in the US, pilots have been advocating to Boeing to make design changes to put back more “aviator in charge” features. Experienced pilots such as Captain Sullenberger* are concerned that “the announced proposed fixes do not go far enough”.  My opinion is that as far as planes are more controlled by computers and the human intervention is limited in overriding machine decisions, there will be risks of malfunctioning somewhere and sometime in the world.  

That said, if you ever look at a satellite flight chart at any given time of the day before the crashes, especially the Ethiopian one, you would find there were a lot more 737 MAX 8 flying in the US, Europe and even in China. US airlines especially Southwest voluntarily endorsed the aircraft. One cannot help but wonder that why there was no such malfunction ever happened in the US? Are the US pilots better equipped with knowledge, skills and techniques to fly given its long aviation history? Some have raised the point that the two crashes both happened in the developing world. Statement like this is politically incorrect to say at least. However if you look into it, for the Ethiopian flight, the first officer had only 200 hours flight record, “a small fraction of the minimum in the US”. The captain and the first offer were 29 and 25 in age respectively. Lion Air is also a relatively new airline in Indonesia. I know I am pointing to something sensitive and very debatable. Design deficiencies are certainly there for Boeing and they underestimated the amount of training that is required for a regular pilot to master a new system. This is a great lesson learned for Boeing. On the other hand, I also had a clearer picture of what could happen with an airline cockpit and I would definitely go with airlines whose captains are masters of aircraft. Whether all this sounds reasonable to you or not, I definitely have no slightest wish that there will be future data verifying the point, right or wrong. 

* Captain "Sully" (Sullenberger) is a renowned retired US pilot who landed his US Airways flight 1549 on the Hudson River in 2009 after two engines failed after a bird strike. All 155 passengers were survived. A movie of him and the landing named "Sully" starred Tom Hanks was released in 2016.  

March 2019